Saturday, May 15, 2010

Velociraptor Group Riding Comprehensive Age Standards

In effect BCMCA 10 year starting gaps of 6 minutes for 60s after 70s down to 3 minutes for 30s after 40s incorporate group riding age standards but only for exact multiples of 10 year differences in age. I offer the following comprehensive individual age standards for group starts to supplement the BCMCA Australian pursuit (or even mass starts). The Australian pursuit age format remains the main competition. However, yearly age standard times (as well as actual times) are also given to each finisher to add incentive and interest.

In the present unsupplemented age handicapping in group races the rider who is at the top age (oldest) of his starting group is at a disadvantage compared with the rider who is at the bottom age (youngest) of the same or another group (particularly for 10 year or more starting groups).
Examples:
A 59 year old finishes 4 seconds behind a 51 year old.
A 49 year old finishes 4 seconds behind a 50 year old (in actual time the 49 year old is 3-56 faster the 50s having a 4 minute start over the 40s).
A 59 year old finishes 4 seconds behind a 41 year old.
In examples like these it is reasonable to hold that the rider who finishes 4 seconds behind has beaten the other on age standard.

To supplement the basic system:
Take the hypothetical average 35 year old male rider who does a 25 mile tt in 1-04-00. Assume he will do a 64 k Australian pursuit starting with other 30 year olds (some faster some slower than he ) on a somewhat hilly course in 1-46-00. Our start gaps imply a similar 45 year old male will take 1-49-00, a 55 year old 1-53-00, a 65 year old 1-58-00, and a 75 year old 2-04-00.
Now use the base times for 35, 45, 55, and 65 year old male riders to generate standards for all ages male and female. The following conditions should be met. Yearly increments should increase with age yet remain the same within the same age start group. The gaps between the top of one age group and the bottom of the next oldest age group should increase with age. Yearly increments should be about 35% (for 40s) of those for individual time trial of same length, 40% (for 60s), up to 60% for 70s and 80s – benefit of drafting offset by somewhat hillier course, drafting benefit decreases for slower, older riders. When the age difference between rider in one 10 year start group and rider in adjacent start group is greater than 10 (can be up to 19) then difference on standard should be greater than start gap between the two groups. When the age difference between rider in one 10 year start group and rider in adjacent start group is less than 10 (can be down to 1) then difference on standard should be less than the start gap between the two groups.
The following chart is about the only one which plausibly meets the conditions.

For moderately hilly circuits of about 64 k (40 miles). Males.

30. 1-45-30
31. 1-45-32
32. 1-45-36
33. 1-45-42
34. 1-45-50
35. 1-46-00
36. 1-46-12
37. 1-46-24
38. 1-46-36
39. 1-46-48
35-39 increments 12 seconds. Gap between 39 and 40 is 57 seconds.
40. 1-47-45
41. 1-48-00
42. 1-48-15
43. 1-48-30
44. 1-48-45
45. 1-49-00
46. 1-49-15
47. 1-49-30
48. 1-49-45
49. 1-50-00.
40-49 increments 15 seconds. Gap between 49 and 50 is 1-30.
50. 1-51-30
51. 1-51-48
52. 1-52-06
53. 1-52-24
54. 1-52-42
55. 1-53-00
56. 1-53-18
57. 1-53-36
58. 1-53-54
59. 1-54-12.
Gap between 59 and 60 is 1-58. 50-59 increments are 18 seconds.
60. 1-56-10
61. 1-56-32
62. 1-56-54
63. 1-57-16
64. 1-57-38
65. 1-58-00
66. 1-58-22
67. 1-58-44
68. 1-59-06
69. 1-59-28.
Gap between 69 and 70 is 2-52. 60-69 increments are 22 seconds.
70. 2-2-20
71. 2-2-52
72. 2-3-24
73. 2-3-56
74. 2-4-28
75. 2-5-00
76. 2-5-32
77. 2-6-04
78. 2-6-36
79. 2-7-08.
Gap between 79 and 80 is 3-22. 70-79 increments are 32 seconds.
80. 2-10-30
81. 2-11-12
82. 2-11-54
83. 2-12-36
84. 2-13-18
85. 2-14-00
86. 2-14-42
87. 2-15-24
88. 2-16-06
89. 2-16-48.
Gap between 89 and 90 is 3-52. 80-89 increments are 42 seconds.
90. 2-20-40
91. 2-21-32
92. 2-22-24
93. 2-23-16
94. 2-24-08
95. 2-25-00
96. 2-25-52
97. 2-26-44
98. 2-27-36
99. 2-28-28.
Gap between 99 and 100 about 4-30. 90-99 increments are 52 seconds.

Notice I have increased the age allowance for 70s and older. This is because even good 70s riders like Eric Rayson, Dave Emery, and John Smith have been unable to get into the top 10 Australian pursuit. If 70s improve we could revert to the original gaps, i.e. a 75 standard of 2-04-00, and an 85 standard of 2-11-00.

This Velociraptor group riding age standard chart could be adjusted for courses which are significantly different in length and time from the 64 k (40 mile) standard. For example add 10% to all age standards for the Langley Phoenix Velo Thunderbird race. The chart is easily modified to accommodate massed start (non-Australian pursuit) – start with the same base of 1-46-00 for the hypothetical average 35 year old male, and make the gap between 39 and 40 the same as the 40s yearly increments, the gap between 49 and 50 the same as the 50s yearly increments, etc. This would enable us to have massed start hill climbs with age standard results. For instance a massed start Shawnigan hill climb would be 25% of the massed start 64 k age standards, Penticton hill climb would be 33%. Incidentally, hill climbs with riders setting off individually can easily be fitted into present age standards – simply incorporate the time trial standards from a time trial of similar duration.

The Velociraptor group riding age standard for a woman is that of a male 15 years her senior.

The Velociraptor group riding age standard chart can easily be modified for courses where the age group start gaps are different from our standard ones – e.g. an Australian pursuit Shawnigan hill climb.

At 67 I feel the decline setting in and so I am more motivated to come up with comprehensive age standards to give me something to race for even though I don’t have a hope of keeping up with guys 30 years younger.

1 comment:

  1. Interesting analysis which I think may be relevant for the older (60+) riders where there are currently few riders and of very variable endurance fitness where they end up soloing much of the time. However in the 50 and under there are many more riders and the tendency is the group stays together and bunch sprints are common. In this case the frequency to which many riders merely draft and do little pulling would seem to me to be a huge factor that is not recognized in this age standard idea.

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